(I’m a big fan of Talking Points Memo, and I wrote this entry over there)
This election is fascinating for so many reasons.
On the one hand you have Brown, a prime minister who hasn’t won an election, faces a strong case of labour fatigue, and has proven himself to be a weaker leader than most thought possible. (He’s turned out to be the perfect No.2 guy, and probably should have stayed as a bridesmaid)
On the right you have Cameron, slightly baby-faced, coating familiar conservative policies with a new sheen of polish, warmth and (quasi) personality. He faces the accusations of being too posh, too privileged, and too much in the coat pockets of the old Tory guard. This is particularly relevant in areas like Wales, Yorkshire and Scotland, where Thatcherism hit hardest with the breaking of the coal-mining industry.
Then of course, we have the third party – perennial ‘third-placers’ – Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats. Nobody ever really gives the LibDems a chance, but this election seems to be changing that by the minute.
(Ok, you probably didn’t need the brief history lesson, but it’s the morning and I’m up early)
So, my thoughts on the Election:
1. Brown may still win. This pains me as I have a £20 bet on Brown losing, but I think it’s starting to win its ugly head again. Mainly because of the debates. The strong showing that Nick Clegg has made in these debates has placed him on the front stage of this election. The Lib-Dems are riding high on the polls right now, mixing it up in the 30% range with the other two.
I think this could play for Brown. If Labour and the Tories are too close to call, the swing towards Clegg may is also a swing towards the left, away from Cameron and the Conservatives. Most pundits are predicting a minority government, but I think there is a very real potential of Clegg swinging voters towards Brown. They will claim to be voting LibDem, but be scared that this is a throw-away vote to Cameron, so will end up voting for Brown.
2. Clegg will lead to Cable. Most of us who support the LibDems wrap ourselves in the Vince Cable flag. He’s by far one of the party’s best politicians, and someone who is poised to make a big gain if the LibDems force a coalition government. There is a lot of talk about him getting the Chancellor position. In my opinion there couldn’t be a better candidate for the job.
3. Dissatisfaction reigns. As much as I have been a supporter of the LibDems for the past ten years, the reality is simple: The only real reason the LibDems are in such a strong position right now is the overall weakness of the two other parties. Labour has been massively burnt on issues like the Economy and the War, and the Conservatives are still fighting off the reputation of Thatcherism.
4. The debates have hurt Brown and Cameron. This probably seems obvious, but the debates are a light-year away from performing on Prime Minister’s Questions. Brown has never really shined and these sorts of contests, but it’s been surprising how weak Cameron has been. I have to admit that I’m predisposed to disliking Cameron, but even I expected him to do better. He’s had difficulty casting himself as anything but an empty shell of soundbites, and he’s been schooled by Clegg on how to (at least appear to be) engage with the public.
Brown is doing, well, as you’d expect him to. When he sticks to substantive issues he comes off a knowledgeable, and when he puts his cheesy grin on his face, he looks pained to be there.
I still believe that this will be a minority government for the Tories. The real question will be how much momentum can the LibDems carry and, more importantly, when it comes to the day of the vote, will people actually vote for them. If they do, this could be a remarkable election in more ways than one.